Summer Vacation

With the onset in July of the xagaa, Puntland's second dry season, the Somali pirates have dropped out of the news with their usual punctuality. From now until September the pirates will be on summer vacation, though not by choice; the monsoon winds sweeping off the Indian Ocean make navigating in small attack skiffs too perilous to carry on the pirate trade year round.

When the attacks inevitably resume two months from now, what strategy are the international naval forces going to throw at the pirates? EUNAVFOR's "2010 strategy," which has focused on interdicting pirate attack groups (motherships towing 2-3 attack skiffs) close to shore--before they reach international shipping lanes--has clearly been unsuccessful. In 2010 to date, there have been a total of 44 successful hijackings, on pace to exceed 2009 figures. More alarmingly, the number of hijackings per reported attack stands at 40%--higher than the success rate in 2008, before the majority of the warships arrived.

At each step, the pirates have adapted to the international naval strategy, with ever-increasing success. The "second semester" of 2010 does not seem likely to yield any better results for counter-piracy efforts.

Manuscript Submitted!

After a year and a half of globe-trotting and cavorting with pirates, I finally finished and submitted my manuscript at the end of last week. There is still plenty of revising and reworking to be done, but for now I will be enjoying a much-needed break from the subject.

Look for The Pirates of Puntland to be hitting shelves in a bookstore near you...in about 8-12 months.